Marshal Déby to be reelected president of Chad for the sixth time

This is a guest post by Ketil Fred Hansen, University of Stavanger  

No one is surprised that Idriss Déby Itno is poised to win the presidential elections held in Chad on Sunday April 11, despite what appeared to be very low voter turnout. Huge numbers of potential voters followed the major opposition leaders’ encouragement to boycott the elections. Déby has been president in Chad continuously since December 1990 when he successfully took power in a coup d’état. Though ousted former president Habré had the formal backing of the US and France, France did not come to president Habré’s rescue and did not respond to his demand for military support in the face of Déby’s rebellion. Winning his sixth election (1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) with ease, Déby does live up to parts of his first broadcasted speech as he took power in December 1990: “I don’t bring you money, nor gold, I bring you liberty!” For sure, he has not brought money: Chad’s population remains one of the poorest in the world with a GDP of less than 2000 $/person. Gold recently discovered in the Tibesti area in northern Chad has benefitted only a tiny elite (and foreign companies) and created intense conflict among artisanal gold diggers and local populations. And liberty? Dream on! Reporters without Frontiers classifies Chad 123/181 on freedom of information, Amnesty International documents arbitrary arrests and torture by Déby’s regime, the restriction of women’s rights and of the freedom of expression. The United Nations Human Development Report ranks Chad 187/189 in 2020. 

Dr. Succès Masra, Paris educated economist and former African Development Bank employee, would certainly agree that liberty is severely restricted in Chad. His political party, Les Transformateurs, established on June 1 2019, has not been officially recognised. The regime uses a paragraph in the 2018 constitution stating that “political advisors in political parties cannot be under 30 years old” as the official reason. In addition, Succès Masra was not recognised as a presidential candidate due to his age (38) as the new constitutional amendment in Chad from 2020 proclaims a minimum of 40 years of age for all presidential candidates. 

President Déby, who was appointed Marshal on Chad’ National Day in 2020, also managed to clear out other potential competitors. One of them, head of the New Front for Change (Front Nouveau pour le Changement – FNC) Yaya Dillo, was accused of defamation and insult of President Déby’s favourite wife, Hinda Déby. When the notorious presidential guard arrived at Dillo’s home early morning on February 28 to bring him to court, he resisted. In the violence that followed, Dillos’ mother and another relative were killed, while Dillo himself managed to escape. This incident made three candidates, two political veterans – Saleh Kebzabo and Ngarlejy Yorongar – and a newcomer – Théophile Bongoro – withdraw their candidatures for the presidency. The regime did though not acknowledge the withdrawal as legitimate, claiming it was submitted incorrectly and too late. Critics, however, argue that a presidential election without these three political veterans discredits the entire electoral process. Keeping numerous political adversaries as candidates increased Déby’s chances of winning the elections in the first round. In addition, the fee of 10 million CFA (15,200 Euro) paid by every presidential candidate would have to be reimbursed if their withdrawal had been accepted. Thus, all three figured on the list of eligible candidates on Sunday 11 April. 

Saleh Kebzabo (73), former minister of education under Déby but the main opposition leader since he created the National Union for Democracy and Renewal/Union Nationale pour la Démocratie et le Renouveau (UNDR) in 1992, came in second in the last presidential election (2016) receiving 12,8 % of the votes. Ngarlejy Yorongar (71) who received 2% in the 1996 presidential elections and 16% in 2001, boycotted the 2006 and 2011 elections and in 2016 he was not accepted as candidate by the Constitutional Council. Even if he is still formally a member of the National Assembly, he has not attended any meeting there over the last years. His old age and bad health contribute to his withdrawal from the political stage. Théophile Bongoro (55), on the contrary, is a newcomer in party politics. Late 2018, he established the Party for Unity and Fairness/Parti pour le rassemblement et l’équité (PRET). On February 9, he was elected by 15 other political parties to represent the political opposition as their unique candidate in a new, loose coalition named “Alliance Victoire“. A few days later however, Kebzabo declared that his party, UNDR, insisted that he himself should be candidate. Thus, the alliance split within a week after its creation, drawing into question the democratic mindset of the opposition. 

A presidential candidate accepted by the constitutional court as a legal candidate who did stand for election is Romadoumngar Nialbé Félix. While representing the numerically most important opposition party, Union for Renewal and Democracy/Union pour le renouveau et la démocratie (URD) in the National Assembly, Romadoumngar is not a public figure in Chad. The last days of the electoral campaign did not help him; Romadoumngar had to stay away from the public as he tested positive for Covid-19. Unknown to most of the populace and seldom seen in public media, Romadoumngar is believed to be informally allied with president Déby. Rumours say that President Déby will give him and the other candidates who remained in the race a new luxury four-wheel drive car and promote them to important public positions after the elections. Time will tell whether this is more than a rumour.  

While the Covid-19 pandemic made it difficult to deploy numerous international electoral observers, the regime tried to please both the opposition and the international community by providing electors with biometric voter cards. However, as Marielle Debos has recently demonstrated, biometric voter registration by itself fails to prevent rigging. In the case of Chad, the cards arrived very late, and many potential electors did not receive their card in time to vote. In some areas, minors were given electoral cards procured with false birth dates. In other areas, some voters received multiple electoral cards with different codes and birth dates. Les Transformateurs’ Succès Masra and two of his advisors met with President Déby, surrounded by numerous Generals, on March 16. Afterwards Masra, on behalf of several opposition leaders, proposed a rescheduled electoral process, with elections on June 13 (2021). President Déby should then not be a candidate but be granted an honourable exit and lifetime immunity. Deby did not take them up on the offer. Instead, Déby proclaimed to be the consensus candidate for Chad, representing the choice of 114 political parties within the so called “presidential majority”. He is now headed for his sixth term in office.

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